South Florida luxury real estate market faces downturn amid policy shifts

Amir Korangy, President
Amir Korangy, President - The Real Deal New York
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South Florida’s luxury real estate market experienced a slowdown in 2025, according to data from Knight Frank. The report focused on home sales priced at $10 million or more and found that both Palm Beach and Miami saw declines in the number of transactions compared to the previous year.

In Palm Beach, there were 127 sales totaling $2.4 billion in 2025, down from 159 sales amounting to $2.9 billion in 2024. Miami also recorded a decrease, with 145 luxury home sales in 2025 compared to 162 the year before. Despite fewer transactions, Miami’s dollar volume for both years remained steady at $3 billion.

At the start of 2025, South Florida agents anticipated another strong year for high-end real estate. Increased optimism followed President Donald Trump’s re-election and economic policies, which led to what was described as a “Trump bump” in early-year activity. Pending luxury contracts in Palm Beach surged by 400 percent year-over-year following the election.

Knight Frank’s data indicated that Palm Beach achieved $1.4 billion in luxury sales during the first quarter of 2025, with Miami close behind at $1.3 billion. This early momentum propelled South Florida’s markets to top positions globally for ultra-luxury real estate.

However, this surge was short-lived. In March, President Trump announced new tariff policies, and an April announcement known as “Liberation Day” led to a significant downturn reminiscent of the pandemic-induced decline seen in 2020.

Following these events, stock markets rebounded sharply; as of publication time, the S&P 500 is up by 14 percent year-over-year. Still, insiders note that market volatility introduced uncertainty among ultra-luxury buyers.

By late 2025, some signs of recovery appeared in South Florida’s luxury housing sector. Palm Beach reported $302 million in fourth-quarter luxury sales volume—an increase from $197 million in the third quarter—while Miami posted $769 million compared to $403 million previously.

The trend appears to be continuing into early 2026. Last week alone, buyers in Palm Beach County signed contracts totaling $273.5 million across 37 deals for homes asking over $10 million. In Miami-Dade County during the same period, buyers signed contracts worth $204.6 million over 24 deals.



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