Commercial real estate deal activity in South Florida has slowed, with first quarter volumes down compared to previous years, according to an April 9 report. Industry professionals cite ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainty as key reasons for the decline.
The decrease in deal flow is significant because South Florida has long been a magnet for investors drawn by its tax-friendly environment and reputation as a business hub. However, recent global events such as the Iran War, higher oil prices, uncertain tariffs, and fluctuating interest rates have created hesitation among both buyers and sellers.
Ben Mandell of Tricera Capital said his firm is currently holding back on acquisitions due to market conditions. “As far as acquisitions are concerned, we are on the sidelines but looking at when we should get back on the court,” Mandell said. Alex Horn of BridgeInvest echoed this sentiment: “Because of this uncertainty, it creates hesitance from investors from leaning in on the investment. We are seeing that across the board.” First quarter commercial deal volume was down 23 percent from last year and 11 percent below the average since 2017.
The slowdown is especially pronounced in multifamily properties, where first quarter sales dropped by 26 percent year-over-year due to oversupply issues following several years of heavy development. Office sales also declined but remained above long-term averages; some sellers have been forced to divest due to maturing debt or equity partner exits. Meanwhile, industrial property investments increased by 14 percent over last year’s first quarter figures.
Some brokers insist that investment activity remains strong despite data showing otherwise. Douglas Mandel of Marcus & Millichap said he closed more deals this year than during early 2025: “There’s a lot of capital still pouring into Florida.” Still, others point out persistent challenges such as wide bid-ask spreads between buyer offers and seller expectations—especially with current cap rates and financing costs making deals harder to close.
Looking ahead, experts say much depends on whether interest rates fall or global tensions ease further. Gregory Matus of Franklin Street believes recovery will hinge on improvements in both housing markets and international stability: “We need to get past this war, and we need the interest rates to come down.” As Alex Horn summarized: “Everyone is waiting for the dust to settle before investors make decisions. It’s having ripple effects throughout the entire industry.”
