Researchers at the FAMU-FSU College of Engineering are developing new computational models to improve predictions of wildfire behavior by including the movement and dynamics of living trees. Current fire prediction models typically treat trees as static obstacles, which can lead to less accurate forecasts.
Associate Professors Neda Yaghoobian and Kourosh Shoele from the Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering are leading this project with a $1 million grant from the National Science Foundation. The research aims to address challenges in fire science related to how fires spread through forests where trees interact with wind and flames.
“Current fire models oversimplify forests as static blocks and do not accurately capture how trees sway, bend and influence airflow and fire dynamics. These oversights can lead to inaccurate forecasts of fire behavior, which may limit the effectiveness of prescribed burns and emergency planning,” Yaghoobian said.
Wildfire activity has increased significantly over the past 20 years in the United States, both in frequency and intensity. Economic losses from wildfires now reach hundreds of billions of dollars annually.
The research is distinct for its focus on tree biomechanics—how trees respond to mechanical forces—and how their movement affects wildfire spread patterns. “Tree movements in the wind play a powerful yet little-understood role in how wildfires spread,” Shoele said. “The main challenge is how to capture this effect in models. In this project, we are tackling this problem by developing tools that, for the first time, let us predict how trees’ bending and swaying movements shape wildland fire behavior.”
To better understand these interactions, the team combines advanced computational fluid dynamics with biomechanical principles and combustion science. Their work includes developing models that examine how tree canopy aerodynamics affect fire behavior, as well as investigating transitions from surface fires to high-intensity canopy blazes.
Collaborators at Worcester Polytechnic Institute (WPI) will conduct laboratory experiments to provide data for validating these computational models. The complexity of these simulations requires supercomputing resources.
The partnership between FAMU-FSU engineers and WPI researchers ensures theoretical advances are tested against practical experiments, aiming for tools that land managers can use for improved wildfire response.
“This understanding is pivotal for improving fire response strategies and ensuring public safety in areas vulnerable to wildfire,” Yaghoobian said.
The project also involves training students from both institutions alongside natural resource management professionals. Students gain experience with computational modeling, laboratory experiments, real-world case studies, and hands-on training in fire management practices while sharing their findings with practitioners and the public.
This initiative seeks not only technological improvements but also enhanced public safety measures, stronger community resilience against wildfires, and development opportunities for future scientists who bridge technical research with practical application.
